Foreign funds return to Thai stocks: net buy 270 billion baht in first half, PTTEP tops list

Foreign investors returned to net buying in the Thai stock market in the first half, ending three consecutive years of net selling. First-half foreign net buying reached about 270 billion baht. Analysts believe strong listed company earnings are the main driver, and expect fund flows to continue in the second half.

Key points: foreign net buying in first half marks first return; the attraction comes from resilient earnings of Thai listed companies, with last quarter's aggregate net profit hitting a record high; analysts expect fund flows may continue in the second half; although global markets may fluctuate due to tighter overseas rate policies, Thailand benefits from relatively stable rate policy, making returns still attractive.

First-half foreign net buying signal: about 270 billion baht

Foreign funds began returning to Thai financial markets in the first half of this year. Net buying across the market exceeded 270 billion baht. In the previous three years, foreign investors had been net sellers cumulatively exceeding 450 billion baht. Although the second half may be affected by global rate paths, domestic factors support gradual foreign inflows. Strategy suggests selective buying, prioritizing high-dividend stocks, stocks that are still relatively lagging, and stocks with specific positive catalysts.

Analysts say first-half foreign flows are a positive signal for the Thai capital market. Net buying of about 270 billion baht equals about 8.8 billion USD. Thailand is one of only two Asian countries with net foreign inflows, the other being Japan, while most regional markets face net selling pressure.

Fund inflows are also supported by solid listed company earnings. Thai listed companies posted a record high aggregate net profit in Q1, reflecting operational strength.

Flow drivers: war and commodity price adjustments

First-half foreign fund flows were affected by war situations and commodity price adjustments. Funds tended to flow toward sectors and companies benefiting from rising energy and raw material prices, while net buying demand also increased. In contrast, foreign investors net sold stocks heavily affected by the war, as well as stocks related to early "reopening/recovery" themes. Additionally, tourism and hospital sectors also saw net selling pressure.

Second half outlook: possible foreign support despite tighter global rates

For the second half, global stock markets may face greater volatility due to tighter monetary policy, especially with the US central bank potentially raising rates another 2-3 times.

Meanwhile, Thai stocks may still receive foreign fund support because Thailand's rate policy has room to maintain stability, keeping the spread between stock market returns and interest rates at a relatively attractive level.

Investment strategy: selective buy and sector picks

Investors are advised to adopt a selective buy strategy, choosing stocks that have risen slower relative to the market, high-dividend stocks, and stocks with specific positive catalysts.

In terms of sectors, the banking sector is highlighted. TTB is expected to have the highest dividend yield among large and mid-sized banks, with a dividend payout ratio of about 3% for interim dividends. Other bank picks include BBL, KBANK, and KTB.

Stocks benefiting from economic recovery include BDMS, BH, and tourism/hotel stocks such as CENTEL and ERW, with expectations of continued improvement in Q2-Q3 operations.

For investors seeking specific factors, water and sugar-related stocks such as TTW, EASTW, and KSL are recommended to capture potential gains from hot weather, and consider El Nino-related risks on agricultural prices and subsequent water demand.

NVDR trading list: foreign top 10 buys and sells

According to Bangkok Business survey (NVDR data), the top 10 foreign buys and sells in the first half (data as of July 1, 2026) are as follows.

Top 10 foreign buys (net)

1. PTTEP: net buy 25,420.47 million baht, average price ~141.70 baht/share

2. KBANK: net buy 20,268.37 million baht, average price ~195.35 baht/share

3. PTT: net buy 19,096.73 million baht, average price ~35.20 baht/share

4. KTB: net buy 6,962.02 million baht, average price ~33.28 baht/share

5. DELTA: net buy 6,043.31 million baht, average price ~269.66 baht/share

6. PTTGC: net buy 5,555.19 million baht, average price ~31.43 baht/share

7. BBL: net buy 5,083.39 million baht, average price ~168.59 baht/share

8. TOP: net buy 4,821.75 million baht, average price ~46.68 baht/share

9. CPALL: net buy 4,295.36 million baht, average price ~46.73 baht/share

10. AOT: net buy 3,807.25 million baht, average price ~53.69 baht/share

Top 10 foreign sells (net)

1. SCB: net sell 4,729.52 million baht, average price ~140.27 baht/share

2. CPF: net sell 3,517.98 million baht, average price ~19.90 baht/share

3. TISCO: net sell 2,058.87 million baht, average price ~113.07 baht/share

4. MINT: net sell 1,802.87 million baht, average price ~22.82 baht/share

5. COM7: net sell 1,208.68 million baht, average price ~23.30 baht/share

6. OR: net sell 965.30 million baht, average price ~12.89 baht/share

7. BDMS: net sell 933.76 million baht, average price ~19.28 baht/share

8. TIDLOR: net sell 708.51 million baht, average price ~17.13 baht/share

9. TRUE: net sell 531.27 million baht, average price ~13.28 baht/share

10. MTC: net sell 448.21 million baht, average price ~30.94 baht/share